Last week, the stock markets were mostly easy to grow. The DAX ended the week with a gain of 1.2% over the previous week. The Nikkei put at 0.3% compared to the previous week. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.6% over the closing price the previous week. The Dow Jones, however, currently quoted at 0.1% in the red compared to the previous week.
This development, however, says little about the ups and downs of the markets this week. The focus of market participants was and is still the problem of Greece. First, the remarks had been able to contribute to assistance from the European countries to calm. Then, however, nothing concrete has been following the meeting of EU leaders reported, which in turn contributed to further increasing skepticism.
Here is an excerpt from my post in the Foreign Exchange Monitor this morning:
“Brussels comedy” is already in the media! Or, as is so often a lot of talk and nothing concrete on the part of policy-makers about Greece!
EU delaying tactics leads to skepticism
As I already wrote on Wednesday: Waiting in advance what to say, the EU leaders actually are! In my opinion, is the principle, anyway, the best course of action if the part of the policy once again something has been announced.
Although … to say they had so few, the Europeans! For example, that a coordinated action was needed to Greece, in the efforts to bring its finances under control, support (in line with Chancellor Merkel). Luxembourg’s Juncker is preceded by drastic measures (what, no one can) to quantify exactly, but assured that no one knew, what tools were applied, if there were a need. France’s Sarkozy (very optimistic) is already looking forward on transparency and solidarity.
Well, what do you mean everything, no one knows, to teach as long as the finance ministers next week, no concrete suggestions! But I would warn dear finance minister: the market participants who are currently well ask what the whole (pardon the expression dear reader) is actually gibberish, like to be reassured, but a complete bailout plan to market the other part of Greece should be even stronger frightened.
There remains skepticism and on the other hand, the growing question of “why?” On Wednesday, I wondered about the fact that Greece will not be once the time is to solve the problems alone. On the other hand, I can not imagine also that the euro countries are now joyfully open immediately the funds for the Greeks. (at least I hope). So should the solidarity insurance only serve the purpose in giving the market a tranquilizer, then that is thoroughly gone wrong. Rather then germinate on even greater concern about whether Greece will actually be able to get his own finances under control. In other words, cheating the Greeks are still around? And what about other countries and their financial problems, such as Spain or Portugal? Once you die (NO) – bailout softens rules, you are still able to prevent that demand in turn, all other states, the same assistance?
Well, it is not an easy time for the EU countries! On the one hand, the market had expected, although expressions of solidarity, which should help calm, keep an eye on the other side must be said that no one calls the false spirits who in the end they will not let go. A delicate balancing act!
To make matters worse now stagnated even German growth
And today, we went even further muddy the news! Unexpectedly, the stagnant German GDP growth in Q4 2009 at 0.7%. Italy’s economy shrank during the same period by 0.2% and Spain reported a decline in growth of 0.1%. This of course rests on the Euro-zone growth, which is also a decrease of 0.1%. This is of course not the end of the boom, but looks very bleak right now, and also sheds light not the best of lofty goals for any rescue! ”
Euro continues under substantial pressure
After all that existed for the euro at the end of the week down only one way to get down! EUR / USD fell on Friday, well below its 8-month low up to 1.3534. News EUR / USD is trading at 1.3610. At mid-week EUR / USD had previously completed a short Zwischenerholung until about 1.38, due to positive indications received on assistance from European countries for Greece.
Wochenrückblick Commodities: Energy & Metals
Energy
Oil prices could easily grow again this week, on Friday but had to give back some of the profits from the previous day.
WTI rose on Thursday to about 75.50 U.S. dollars per barrel after the International Energy Agency had revised its estimate for 2010 demand by 170,000 barrels per day upwards. The IEA predicts demand growth of 1.6 million barrels per day for this year. Thus, it is still much more optimistic view than the OPEC or the U.S. Department of Energy. OPEC estimates a demand growth of 0.8 million barrels per day, the U.S. Department of Energy predicts a rise in demand of 1.2 million barrels per day.
On Friday, oil prices fell – as said – again under pressure because of U.S. dollar strength, the Greece-lasting problem and speculation on rising U.S. inventories. The inventory data for last week this week due to heavy snowfall in Washington, provided with 2 days delay announced by the Department of Energy. The consensus expects a rise in crude oil stocks in the amount of 1.6 million barrels.
WTI for delivery in March, currently quoted at 73.48 U.S. dollars per barrel on the NYMEX.
Brent crude for delivery in April, currently quoted at 72.39 U.S. dollars per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange in London.
Metals
Precious Metals
The gold price could grow again this week – not, however, remained untouched by the emotional roller coaster in the markets.
At midweek the price of gold fell out – in the face of burgeoning new hope to solve the Greek problem – temporarily again to below 1065 U.S. dollars per troy ounce. On Thursday, however – as the skepticism about a solution to the problems reappeared holding – the gold price could rise again in the direction of the 1,100 U.S. dollar mark.
Currently, the gold price is trading at 1087.40 U.S. dollars per ounce on the COMEX.
The London AM Gold Fix was set today at 1082 U.S. dollars per troy ounce.
Base metals
Industrial metals were this week grow surprisingly well, which is most probably due to some positive economic data from the United States (retail sales up in January for the third time in the past 4 months, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits dropped).
Otherwise, the fundamental starting position remains unchanged for the industrial metals. Still, rising inventories indicate a growing (About offer). The global copper stocks on the stock exchanges in Shanghai, London and New York, for example, has climbed to 759,850 tonnes – the highest level since January 2004.
Copper currently quoted at 3.06 dollars per pound on the Comex.
Gold prices fell below $ 1,680
The gold price yesterday, $ 1,680 per troy ounce has fallen. The price of silver was to strong. Despite growing recession fears in the wake of European investors preferred debt crisis currently seem more cash, it said in the trade. Gold stocks were increasingly being exploited to create liquidity. Many investors seem to fear, because of market turmoil is not enough cash to offset losses in other markets have.